Year-End Letter · December 2025

Contradictions and TINA’s Funeral?

Japanese Banks, Polish Equities, Junior Miners. All were better investments than the AI trade in 2025.

“Every time there has been a technology wave that leads to wealth creation…that will inherently invite speculators… If the wave is real, then you’re going to have bubble-like behavior.” — Bill Gurley

Now, obviously the story that commanded attention in 2025 was AI, this is a nice reminder of how insular our financial media can get.

Even with all the hype around another year of AI investment, it arguably wasn’t the biggest trade of the year. Maybe not even top 5, and yet it made headlines every day.

In yet another one of these annual letters you will skim, or put through ChatGPT to summarize for you, we’re going to have to talk about it – but we think the bigger story is what is happening elsewhere in the world.

There are few certainties in investing, but we’re as close as we can get to saying the years of there is no alternative (TINA) to US exceptionalism…are over.

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