Quarterly Letter · Q1 2026

Everyone hates sad karaoke songs

Iran, Market Financial Solutions, Citrini.

“Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.” — Torsten Slok, Apollo Chief Economist

Three of the biggest drivers of returns year-to-date didn’t make it into our year-end letter. Because that’s the nature of how things break.

In the spring of 2023, I was asked to present at a small roundtable in Austin on the state of the economy and the nature of crises. Silicon Valley Bank had just collapsed. First Republic was in danger. The room wanted to know if this was the beginning of something, or just noise.

What we walked through wasn’t a prediction about which bank was next. It was a pattern. Crises follow a remarkably consistent arc: there is no problem; then if there is a problem, it will be contained; then, suddenly, it isn’t.

From there, two paths diverge: the pessimists are wrong, things stay localized, and we move on. Or they aren’t, and the evolution to “we have a problem” is swift, violent, and broad.

The other common thread is that the actual nature of crisis is unpredictable. By definition, a shock will catch people offsides.

It was also at this roundtable we discussed the fact that at karaoke night, people who bum out the crowd with sad songs get booed, and this all sounds like a sad karaoke song.

Apologies in advance.

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